Warsaw, 22 October 2025 — The latest data published today by Statistics Poland (GUS) indicates a renewed deterioration in both consumer and business sentiment, pointing to growing uncertainty as the economy enters the final quarter of 2025.
The Current Consumer Confidence Index (BWUK) declined to –10.9, a 2.6 percentage point decrease versus September. The decline was driven predominantly by a sharp worsening in the assessment of Poland’s current and future macroeconomic situation (–4.9 p.p. and –4.6 p.p. respectively). Sentiment regarding household financial conditions also weakened, while only the readiness to make major purchases remained marginally positive (+0.3 p.p.).
Forward-looking sentiment also softened. The Leading Consumer Confidence Index (WWUK) fell to –6.6, down 2.3 p.p. month-on-month, with expectations for unemployment, national economic outlook and household finances all declining.
On the business side, the General Business Climate Indicators signal stagnation or a downward shift across nearly all surveyed sectors. The most pessimistic assessments came from:
- Manufacturing: –8.0 (vs –6.5 in September)
- Construction: –7.3 (vs –5.3)
- Transport & logistics: –2.3 (vs +1.0)
- Accommodation & food services: –1.2 (vs +5.0), marking the steepest sentiment reversal
The only sector to post a solidly positive reading was financial and insurance services (+23.6), albeit slightly below its long-term trend.
The survey also confirms that concerns about the war in Ukraine remain a structural factor affecting sentiment: over 57% of consumers and roughly 9–14% of firms report tangible negative impact, with cost pressure cited far more frequently than revenue disruption.
“While the Polish economy entered 2025 with momentum, the October data points to a clear loss of confidence — both on the consumer and enterprise side. The deterioration is broad-based and suggests that decision-makers are becoming increasingly cautious ahead of year-end. The resilience of financial services stands out, but stress indicators in manufacturing, construction and hospitality merit close monitoring in the coming weeks.”
