Poland’s foreign trade in January–September 2025 – stable exports, rising imports and a shift in key partners

Data from Statistics Poland (Główny Urząd Statystyczny) for the period January–September 2025 show clear changes in the structure and dynamics of Poland’s foreign trade. Rising imports, moderate export growth and the re-emergence of a negative goods trade balance point to a changing global environment and growing demand in the Polish economy for foreign products.

The total value of merchandise trade reached:

Exports: PLN 1,143.0 billion
Imports: PLN 1,162.6 billion
Balance: –PLN 19.6 billion

Compared with the same period of 2024, exports recorded modest growth of 0,8%, while imports were clearly higher – up by 3,4%.

Exports and imports in US dollars and euro – weaker balance despite higher volumes

When converted into the main global currencies:

Exports (USD): USD 299.0 billion (+4.9% y/y)
Imports (USD): USD 304.1 billion (+7.5% y/y)
Balance: –USD 5.2 billion (a year earlier there was a surplus of +USD 2.4 billion)
Exports (EUR): EUR 269.6 billion (+2.6% y/y)
Imports (EUR): EUR 274.2 billion (+5.2% y/y)
Balance: –EUR 4.6 billion (a year earlier +EUR 2.1 billion)

The stronger momentum of imports compared with exports and rising domestic demand are contributing to a deterioration of the trade balance in foreign currency terms.

Geographical structure: greater role of the EU in exports, rising imports from outside Europe

The share of developed countries remains dominant:

Exports

Developed countries: 87.2% (including the EU 74.8%)
Developing countries: 8.2%
Central and Eastern Europe: 4.6%

Imports

Developed countries: 64.6% (EU 52.7%)
Developing countries: 33.7%
Central and Eastern Europe: 1.7%

The declining share of imports from the EU, coupled with a rising share of imports from developing countries, indicates that Poland is increasingly sourcing from Asian economies and global manufacturing hubs.

Trade balances – high surpluses with developed countries, large deficits with developing regions

Developed countries: +PLN 245.9 billion
EU countries: +PLN 241.6 billion
Central and Eastern Europe: +PLN 32.9 billion
Developing countries: –PLN 298.5 billion (mainly Asia)

This structure is typical for European economies – strong export specialisation towards EU and US markets and rising imports of industrial components from Asia.

Main trading partners – Germany remains dominant, but growth is slowing

Exports – TOP 10

Germany – PLN 309.4 billion (27.1% of exports)
Czechia – PLN 70.3 billion
France – PLN 69.7 billion
United Kingdom – PLN 60.2 billion
Netherlands – PLN 52.5 billion
Italy – PLN 51.1 billion
Ukraine – PLN 40.5 billion
USA – PLN 36.7 billion
Spain – PLN 33.6 billion
Slovakia – PLN 30.8 billion

Imports – TOP 10

Germany – PLN 224.4 billion (19.3% of imports)
China – PLN 176.3 billion (15.2%)
USA – PLN 57.1 billion
Italy – PLN 53.7 billion
Netherlands – PLN 45.0 billion
France – PLN 39.0 billion
Czechia – PLN 37.5 billion
South Korea – PLN 32.6 billion
Spain – PLN 25.2 billion
Belgium – PLN 24.8 billion

Germany

Export share down by 0.1 percentage point.
Import share down by 0.3 percentage point.
Balance with Germany: +PLN 85 billion, slightly lower than a year earlier.

Czechia

A record-high positive balance of +PLN 32.8 billion, with a stable export share of 6.2%.

Imports by country of dispatch – stronger position of Germany and the Netherlands

In imports calculated by country of dispatch (which captures logistics hubs):

Germany’s share increases by 6.2 p.p.
The Netherlands’ share rises by 2.9 p.p.
China’s share falls by 5.6 p.p.
The USA’s share falls by 1.3 p.p.

This reflects the growing role of European logistics hubs and the shift of parts of supply chains from Asia to Central and Western Europe.

Commodity structure by SITC – industry under pressure, food and chemicals stable

Exports – growth in five categories

The strongest increases were recorded in:

goods not classified in SITC: +29%
food and live animals: +8.5%
miscellaneous manufactured articles: +2.7%
chemicals: +1.6%
beverages and tobacco: +0.2%

Declines were noted in:

fuels: –21.7%
oils and fats: –13.8%
non-edible raw materials: –6%
manufactured goods classified chiefly by material: –1%
machinery and transport equipment: –0.1%

Imports – increases in as many as eight categories

The strongest growth was recorded in:

unclassified goods: +44.1%
miscellaneous manufactured articles: +11.8%
food and live animals: +9.1%
machinery and equipment: +2.2%

Imports of fuels (–13.5%) and of oils and fats (–2.2%) declined over the same period.

Interpretation: what do the 2025 figures mean?

1. The economy is accelerating – imports grow faster than exports

Higher imports signal a revival in domestic demand, including both investment and consumption.

2. A weaker trade balance is typical for an upswing phase

The negative balance of –PLN 19.6 billion is not surprising: rising output and investment increase demand for imported components and machinery.

3. The role of China and South Korea is growing

Particularly in the import of electronic components, batteries, machinery and industrial products.

4. Poland’s strong competitive position in the EU is being maintained

The large surplus in trade with developed countries (over PLN 240 billion) confirms the strong position of Polish exports.

Lower dependence on imported energy commodities and lower fuel prices have a positive effect on the trade balance.

Poland’s foreign trade in the period January–September 2025