The Polish credit market in 2025 is facing the biggest structural and macroeconomic changes in years. Data presented in the Infokredyt 2025 report by the Polish Bank Association (ZBP) show that interest rate cuts, high excess liquidity in the banking sector and rising household incomes are creating conditions for dynamic growth in lending. At the same time, the sector is struggling with increasing regulatory pressure, including a higher corporate income tax (CIT), which – as analysts point out – may limit credit potential by nearly PLN 125 billion over the next decade. As a result, 2025 is a turning point where fiscal and monetary changes begin to compete with each other, and decisions by the government and the central bank will be crucial for funding the economy in the coming quarters.
The introduction to the report makes it clear that Poland – compared with the European Union – still has significant unused potential in lending. The ratio of loans to the non-financial sector to GDP stands at 31.7%, placing Poland among the least “leveraged” economies in the EU. At the same time, the strong growth of consumer loans and a clear rebound in mortgage lending show that demand is returning to the market on a much larger scale than in 2022–2023. Poles are more willing to take on debt, and almost half of all adults now have a loan or credit.
The report also highlights the strong regional differences in debt levels and repayment quality. The highest average debt is observed in the Mazowieckie voivodeship, where a typical borrower has over PLN 75,000 to repay. At the opposite end is the Podkarpackie voivodeship, where average debt amounts to PLN 36,800 and residents are also the most reliable in servicing their loans. BIK data for all regions confirm that portfolio quality remains safe, although small month-to-month deteriorations in quality indicators are visible.
The year 2025 also brings a strong increase in interest in “Buy Now, Pay Later” (BNPL) solutions, which are increasingly seen as a fully fledged part of the credit market. More than 2.86 million customers used this form of payment within six months, and every second young BNPL user is under 24. As the analysis points out, this trend will have long-term consequences for building the credit histories of young Poles and for the risk policies of banks and lending institutions.
Monetary policy and the impact of interest rate cuts
In 2025, the Monetary Policy Council carried out a total of five interest rate cuts, reducing the NBP reference rate to 4.25%. According to ZBP analysts, this is a response to a clear improvement in inflation prospects, particularly a downward revision of the CPI inflation path by an average of 0.67 percentage points for each month of the last quarter of the year. Lower interest rates have automatically translated into reduced debt-servicing costs and higher borrowing capacity for households. For a 20-year mortgage of PLN 450,000, the monthly instalment is around PLN 405 lower, i.e. a decline of about 11%.
Importantly, compared with a reference rate of 5.75%, the current level of 4.25% raises a typical Polish borrower’s maximum loan capacity by more than PLN 55,000. This means an increase in borrowing potential of 12.35%, which at market level translates into a tangible revival of demand in the mortgage segment. The report stresses that such changes may drive a lasting increase in demand in both the housing and consumer segments, especially in an environment of improving economic sentiment.
At the same time, the Polish Bank Association points out that the easing cycle is taking place against a backdrop of expansionary fiscal policy. A high budget deficit and rising public debt may generate inflationary pressure in the medium term, which, in the analysts’ view, increases the risk of undermining the effectiveness of monetary policy. In its macroeconomic recommendations, the report argues that monetary policy should, to some extent, counterbalance fiscal policy by maintaining an appropriate level of restrictiveness.
Another key element of the analysis is that inflation in Poland – unlike in previous quarters – has now firmly moved within the permissible deviation band around the target and will not exceed 3% in any month at the end of the year. This is favourable for borrowers, but it is also a signal that the room for further rate cuts may be smaller than the more optimistic market forecasts assume.
Poland vs. the European Union – potential and constraints
The Polish banking sector remains one of the smallest in the European Union in relation to GDP. According to ZBP data, the assets of banks operating in Poland amount to around 93% of GDP, whereas in France this ratio reaches 423%, and in Germany more than 250%. Only Romania, Slovenia and Latvia are lower in this ranking. This means that although the Polish sector is stable, its scale is still modest and its growth potential – substantial.
A similar pattern is visible in the ratio of household loans to GDP, which in Poland stands at just 12.6%. By comparison, in Denmark this indicator is 78%, in the Netherlands 57% and in Sweden 54%. The report explains that these differences stem from housing market structures, traditions in financing investments and the degree of development of debt instruments. With regard to household indebtedness, Poland is close to the bottom in the EU, which points to enormous scope for further expansion of lending.
The picture is similar in the corporate segment. The ratio of corporate loans to GDP puts Poland in the penultimate position in the EU, ahead only of Ireland, whose figure is distorted by GDP statistics. This shows that Polish companies – especially SMEs – still finance investments mainly with their own capital. According to the report’s authors, this is a serious constraint on the pace of economic modernisation, particularly in the context of the energy transition, automation and digitalisation.
At the same time, the banking sector is operating with record excess liquidity. The loans-to-deposits ratio is just 60.1%, meaning banks have ample space to expand lending. However – as ZBP stresses – additional regulatory burdens, such as the bank tax and the planned CIT hikes, may limit this potential and lead to reduced availability of financing for companies and households.
Consumer loans – demand is back and Poles are investing in quality of life again
In 2025, consumer loans are among the fastest-growing market segments. According to BIK data, the number of cash loans granted in September was 18.8% higher than a year earlier, while their value rose by 21.3%. The average cash loan amount increased to PLN 26,400, confirming that Poles are financing increasingly large expenses through borrowing. At the same time, the report notes that lending criteria in the consumer segment were eased again in the third quarter, affecting both availability and competition between banks.
As in 2024, the most frequently cited purpose of consumer credit is home renovation – indicated by as many as 83% of surveyed bankers. Next come car purchases, consolidating other debts and funding current needs. However, the data reveals important changes in preferences compared with the previous year. Significantly fewer Poles say they will borrow to buy a car, while more of them are taking loans to finance training, education and health-related expenses.
Consumer sentiment – despite some weakening in October – remains at levels consistent with a demand recovery. Almost half of respondents believe further interest rate cuts will increase interest in consumer loans. Representatives of the sector highlight that this segment is likely to react most strongly to stabilising inflation and growing public confidence in the economic outlook.
Mortgage loans: strong rebound and new market conditions
In 2025, mortgages are one of the most dynamic areas of the financial market, as confirmed by BIK data for September. Banks granted 52.4% more mortgages than a year earlier and 22.2% more than in August, clearly indicating an accelerating recovery in demand. In value terms, new mortgage lending rose by as much as 62.8% year-on-year, one of the best readings in a decade. The main drivers of this revival are lower interest rates, rising real household incomes and intensifying competition among banks, which are fighting more aggressively for clients.
The average amount of a new mortgage in the third quarter rose to PLN 450,000, setting a new record and reflecting rising property prices. AMRON-SARFiN data show that transaction prices of flats in Poland’s largest cities continue to trend upwards, often by 6–10% compared with a year earlier. This particularly applies to the primary market, where developers still face strong cost pressures. The rising average loan size is therefore a result of higher home prices and the fact that buyers are more likely to choose larger properties, treating the purchase as a long-term investment.
Banks also report growing interest in variable-rate mortgages, driven by stabilising inflation and expectations that interest rates will stay at current levels for a longer period. At the same time, the credit policies of financial institutions have been slightly loosened in the third quarter. This includes extending maximum loan maturities and adopting a more flexible approach to assessing borrowers’ creditworthiness. Surveyed sector representatives point out that competition between banks is becoming one of the key factors shaping final loan conditions.
However, EU data show that Poland’s mortgage debt level remains very low. The ratio of mortgage loans to GDP is 12.6%, placing Poland 24th among 27 EU member states. By comparison, the ratio exceeds 78% in Denmark and is close to 60% in the Netherlands. This means that, despite the current rebound, the mortgage market has enormous structural growth potential. ZBP emphasises that factors such as inflation stabilisation, rising incomes and a housing shortage may keep mortgages a key driver of household financing for years to come.
Loan portfolio quality: stabilisation with growing warning signs
Overall loan portfolio quality in Poland remains stable, although BIK data point to a slight month-to-month deterioration. In September, the quality index for cash loans was 3.86%, for credit cards 3.84%, for instalment loans 1.3%, and for mortgages 0.67%. These levels – despite local deviations – support the view that the banking sector’s risk profile remains safe. The lowest risk is still associated with mortgage loans, reflecting strict lending standards and historically good repayment discipline among Polish borrowers in this segment.
Year-on-year, the quality of mortgage and cash-loan portfolios has improved, which indicates an overall stabilisation in household finances. However, the indicators for credit cards and instalment loans have worsened. ZBP sees this as an effect of rising cost pressure on some consumers and increased reliance on short-term financing. This is an area that requires careful monitoring, as it is usually the first to signal a deterioration in household financial standing.
On a month-to-month basis, all four quality indices rose, meaning a deterioration in portfolio quality – although still on a small scale. Experts stress that this is not a reason for alarm, but an early warning sign that, in the event of an economic slowdown or a sudden rise in living costs, bank portfolios may become more vulnerable than in recent years. This is particularly true for cash loans and credit cards, which tend to react first to changes in consumer sentiment and household financial burdens.
It is also worth noting that Poland has the highest share of non-performing loans (NPLs) among the EU countries analysed. Although the indicator rose only marginally in the last quarter, it still stands more than 1.5 percentage points above the EU average. In ZBP’s view, this is a consequence of historical factors, including the restructuring of Swiss franc mortgage portfolios, and of phases of the business cycle coinciding with the pandemic and the subsequent inflation shock. Although the long-term trend is positive, the sector must take into account the heightened sensitivity of the overall loan portfolio.
The Polish Bank Association underlines that it will now be crucial to maintain a balance between expanding lending and responsible risk management. Growing competition between banks may lead to lending standards being relaxed too quickly, which in extreme cases could repeat scenarios known from some Western European markets. The balance between market growth and portfolio quality control will therefore be the sector’s key challenge in the coming quarters.
Poles’ savings: banking sector overliquidity but a low savings rate
Household savings are one of the key elements of a country’s financial health. KNF data for August 2025 show that Poles still maintain high balances in bank deposits. The total value of deposits of the non-financial sector exceeded PLN 2.026 trillion, with households accounting for as much as 70.1%. This structure is typical of emerging economies, where savings are held mainly in safe, liquid instruments. Deposit growth of 8.2% year-on-year confirms consumers’ high level of uncertainty, but also their caution in the face of economic change.
At the same time, the loans-to-deposits ratio stands at only 60.1%, one of the lowest levels in the EU for years. This means that the banking sector has enormous scope to increase lending, but it also points to structural overliquidity in the financial system. ZBP notes that the low use of deposits to fund loans is due not only to banks’ prudence but also to the design of the bank tax, which discourages lending and incentivises investments in government bonds.
Although Polish deposits have reached record nominal levels, the savings rate remains low. According to Eurostat, Polish households save an average of 12.8% of their disposable income, clearly less than households in Western Europe. French, Dutch and Swedish households often save more than 17–20% of their income, reflecting a different financial culture and greater economic stability. In Poland, the rise in savings has mainly been driven by inflation uncertainty and caution after a series of macroeconomic shocks between 2020 and 2023.
The savings structure is also dominated by short-term deposits, which is directly linked to volatile expectations regarding future interest rates. Poles still rarely invest in higher-yielding financial instruments such as corporate bonds or investment funds. ZBP notes that making long-term savings products more attractive could ease pressure on the banking sector and reduce overliquidity, enabling more efficient allocation of capital in the real economy.
CIT and the bank tax: changes that will hit the economy
One of the most controversial legislative changes of 2025 is the increase in CIT for banks, passed by the Sejm on 6 November 2025. The new rates – 30% from 2026, 26% from 2027 and 23% from 2028 – represent one of the largest tax increases for the sector in history. ZBP argues that the change is not only unfavourable, but also unconstitutional, as it violates the principles of equality and proportionality in taxation. The most problematic aspect, according to experts, is that the tax applies exclusively to the banking sector, creating unjustified differences in burden across industries.
The report clearly states that the higher CIT will reduce banks’ capitalisation by nearly PLN 66 billion in the coming years, limiting their ability to build up equity. Capital is the fundamental resource that determines how much financing can be made available to companies and households. A loss of capital therefore automatically translates into lower lending. ZBP estimates that, over the next decade, some PLN 125 billion in loans will not be extended as a result. Sectors that rely heavily on debt financing – SMEs, agriculture and companies investing in modernisation or the energy transition – will be particularly hard hit.
Importantly, the negative effects of the higher CIT will also be felt by Polish retail investors and pensioners. The shareholder structure of banks shows that it is mainly domestic investors – rather than foreign capital – who will bear the brunt of lower dividends. ZBP estimates that the total loss for savers may reach PLN 22 billion, while the loss to the State Treasury – due to falling values of state-controlled assets – may amount to a further PLN 14.4 billion. Consequently, the real fiscal gain from the higher CIT is far lower than the PLN 6.1 billion per year assumed in the budget.
The second key burden is the bank tax, introduced in 2016, which is one of the most restrictive in the EU. Its design – based on assets rather than profits – discourages lending and pushes banks towards government bonds. ZBP shows that, if not for the structure of the bank tax, the total loan portfolio to the non-financial sector would today be around PLN 700 billion larger. This is an enormous amount that could have been used to support business growth, renewable energy, infrastructure investment and housing modernisation.
At the same time, data show that banks in Poland are allocating record amounts to financing the state: PLN 296 billion in government bonds and another PLN 119 billion in PFR and BGK bonds. This effectively “crowds out” credit from the real economy, especially from the corporate sector. The strong concentration of banks on funding public debt results from the fact that bonds are exempt from the bank tax, whereas classic loans are not. This anomaly is a major reason why the financial sector is becoming less able to finance the investments needed for the country’s development.
Tax implications for the credit market – scenarios and simulations
The higher CIT combined with the bank tax creates a new, unfavourable fiscal environment for the entire banking sector. ZBP’s analysis shows that the increased tax burden will directly reduce banks’ net profits and, in turn, their ability to accumulate capital. This is particularly important in light of regulatory requirements for Tier 1 capital and capital buffers, which directly determine the scale of lending. As a result, the sector will have to take a more selective approach to financing new investments and scale back the riskiest activities.
The simulations presented in the report show that a permanently higher CIT will reduce bank capitalisation by around PLN 66 billion within a few years. At the macroeconomic level, this means a reduction in available credit potential of at least PLN 125 billion over the next decade. For comparison, this is equivalent to a full year of corporate lending in the years before the pandemic. This implies that entrepreneurs may feel a real deterioration in access to finance as early as 2026–2027, especially in capital-intensive sectors such as energy, transport, construction and manufacturing.
ZBP also notes that the CIT hike coincides with other negative structural factors – economic slowdown in Europe, rising regulatory costs, higher credit risk and wage pressure in the banking sector. Banks will therefore be forced to apply stricter credit assessments and increase loan margins. In practice, this means that both mortgages and consumer loans may become more expensive, despite currently low interest rates.
In the scenarios developed by the Polish Bank Association, there is also a risk that some banks will suspend dividend payments for years in order to maintain adequate capital levels. This is particularly important for retail investors, who have traditionally regarded bank stocks as a stable source of regular income. Lower dividends will therefore affect not only the sector itself, but also households, investment funds and the State Treasury, which is a shareholder in several of the largest institutions.
If the current tax model remains unchanged in the coming years, the banking sector may find itself in a situation where balance sheet stability takes precedence over loan growth. In the longer term, this would mean slower economic growth, reduced investment and higher capital costs for businesses. ZBP warns that such a fiscal-monetary environment runs counter to the goals of the government’s economic policy, which are based on promoting investment and modernising the economy.
Credit market outlook for 2026–2030
Against the backdrop of current trends, the Polish credit market is in a phase of recovery and cautious optimism, but also faces growing structural risks. ZBP’s five-year forecasts point to continued growth in demand for mortgages, driven by rising incomes, falling inflation and a growing housing shortage in major cities. However, market dynamics may be constrained by fiscal policy and rising regulatory burdens, which will limit banks’ ability to expand lending.
In the consumer loan segment, the positive trend is expected to continue, especially in areas related to financing home improvements, education, healthcare and household modernisation. The BNPL market will play an increasingly important role and, according to estimates, could reach PLN 15 billion annually by 2030. This segment attracts young consumers for whom it is often the first contact with external financing and credit history building. Banks will need to adjust their strategies to this competition by offering more flexible products and shorter credit approval processes.
The corporate lending market will be most dependent on public policy and the availability of capital within the banking sector. Higher CIT and the continuing bank tax may slow the growth of this segment, particularly among SMEs. At the same time, companies must invest in the green transition, automation and digitalisation, which will further increase demand for external financing. If banks are unable to provide sufficient capital, the resulting funding gap may be filled by foreign investment funds, reducing the capital autonomy of the Polish economy.
Macroeconomic forecasts assume that inflation will remain close to the NBP target, which is conducive to predictable financing costs and taking on long-term credit commitments. Economic growth is expected to range between 2.5% and 3.5% annually, providing a solid foundation for the development of the credit market. The main risk factors remain fiscal policy and the international environment, which could force changes in interest rate policy or increase risk premiums.
One of the key trends in 2026–2030 will be the continued digitalisation of financial services and the automation of credit processes. Banks are increasingly using advanced scoring models, artificial intelligence and behavioural data, which speed up decision-making and reduce operating costs. This will make it possible to lend to a wider range of customers without proportionally increasing risk. The development of digital financial ecosystems, integration of payment and credit services and growing competition from fintechs will reshape the sector by the end of the decade.
Recommendations
In light of the findings and analyses presented in the Infokredyt 2025 report, it is necessary to develop a set of measures that will strengthen the stability of the banking sector and boost its capacity to finance the economy. The key recommendation for the government is to reassess the design of the bank tax and the timetable for CIT increases. In their current form, these burdens create an environment that discourages banks from expanding lending and encourages them to allocate funds into government bonds instead of investments in the real economy. ZBP recommends gradually reforming these fiscal instruments so that they reward lending to businesses and households, rather than funding public debt.
A second key area of action should be to create a stable and predictable regulatory environment. In recent years, the banking sector has been subject to numerous legislative changes, which have raised operating costs and increased investment uncertainty. Experts argue that sudden interventions in financial policy should be limited and more transparent public consultations introduced when drafting new laws. Legal stability is the foundation of long-term planning and enables banks to manage capital, risk and strategy more effectively.
The banking sector, in turn, should increase its investment in modern technologies, automated credit processes and data analytics. Better scoring models, broader use of artificial intelligence and integration of behavioural data can help expand lending without increasing risk. Banks must, however, maintain a balance between innovation and security. The ZBP analysis stresses that the development of digital channels should go hand in hand with robust mechanisms to protect customer data and operational processes.
Given the rapid growth of the BNPL segment, regulators should also clarify the legal framework for deferred payments. ZBP notes that BNPL plays an important role in integrating young consumers into the financial market, but it also carries risks of over-indebtedness and bypassing standard creditworthiness checks. It is crucial that all institutions offering BNPL report data to BIK and apply similar standards of responsible lending as banks. Harmonising rules will increase market transparency and strengthen consumer protection.
The final recommendation is to step up financial education efforts targeting households. ZBP points out that many Poles do not understand the consequences of choosing variable-rate loans, are unable to assess the total cost of credit and do not analyse contracts from a risk perspective. Educational programmes should be conducted by both the public sector and banks to raise financial literacy and promote responsible borrowing.
Final conclusions and summary
The year 2025 is a turning point for the Polish credit sector. Interest rate cuts, inflation stabilisation and rising household incomes have created conditions for a dynamic market rebound, particularly in the mortgage and consumer loan segments. We are seeing a clear revival in demand, rising average loan amounts and a greater willingness among Poles to finance major expenses with credit. Data from ZBP and BIK indicate that, after several difficult years, the market is returning to a path of stable growth.
At the same time, the report shows that the banking sector faces structural challenges that may limit its ability to finance the economy in the long run. The bank tax and higher CIT create an environment in which lending is economically less attractive than investing in government bonds. The result of these regulations is a real reduction in the supply of credit – both for businesses and households – and structural overliquidity in the sector. ZBP data clearly show that, without the current tax system, the loan portfolio in Poland would be up to PLN 700 billion larger.
Compared with other EU countries, the Polish financial sector is still small relative to GDP and relatively “under-leveraged”. This implies enormous growth potential, but also a challenge for policymakers, who must create conditions conducive to the expansion of lending. Without such conditions, it will be difficult to finance key investment needs, such as the energy transition, infrastructure modernisation and business digitalisation. The Polish economy faces investment requirements of hundreds of billions of zloty, and banks are the main source of capital for companies and households.
The Infokredyt 2025 report also highlights the growing importance of the BNPL segment, which is becoming an integral part of the financial ecosystem. Deferred payments are convenient and accessible, but from a sector stability perspective, they represent a phenomenon that must be closely monitored. This is particularly true for young consumers, for whom BNPL is often their first encounter with debt. It will be crucial to ensure that this segment develops responsibly and remains aligned with credit market standards.
Finally, the analysis of loan portfolio quality points to overall stability but also to warning signs. The month-to-month deterioration in quality indices and the high share of NPLs compared with the EU are factors that require continued attention. At the same time, mortgages remain the least risky product, and their high repayment quality is a cornerstone of the sector’s stability.
In summary, the Polish credit market has years of growth ahead – but only if the banking sector is supported by a stable and rational regulatory and fiscal framework. Without changes to tax and fiscal policy, it will be difficult to unlock the market’s full potential and meet the financing needs of the economy.
