Consumer sentiment in Poland in November 2025 presented a mixed picture of the situation – on the one hand, we observe an improvement in current assessments among households, while on the other, a deterioration in expectations regarding the future. Data from Statistics Poland (GUS) show that consumers are clearly reacting to economic, inflationary and geopolitical changes, and their responses serve as an important barometer for the future dynamics of consumption.
According to the GUS report, the current consumer confidence index (BWUK) increased by 1.0 percentage point month-on-month to –9.9, indicating an improvement in assessments related to the current economic situation of households and the country. Meanwhile, the leading consumer confidence index (WWUK) fell by 0.9 percentage point to –7.5, signaling greater caution among consumers in their forecasts of future economic conditions.
1. Improvement in current assessments – a detailed analysis of BWUK
BWUK synthetically describes current consumption trends based on five components relating to household finances, the country’s economic situation and willingness to make purchases. In November 2025, we observe an improvement in most current assessments.
1.1. The most important changes in BWUK components
According to the attached table (Table 1, pp. 2–3 of the document):
- the assessment of the ability to make major purchases increased by 2.4 pp,
- the assessment of the future financial situation of the household improved by 2.1 pp,
- the assessment of the country’s current economic situation increased by 1.4 pp,
- the only component that deteriorated m/m was the assessment of the current financial situation of the household – a decline of 2.0 pp.
This set of changes suggests that consumers feel greater stability in the market for goods and services and positively assess their purchasing potential, but at the same time struggle with difficulties in their current household budget.
1.2. BWUK compared to previous months
It is worth noting that BWUK in November reached a value 7.2 pp higher than in the same month of 2024. This indicates a lasting improvement in sentiment and a reversal of negative trends observed in 2022–2023.
Table 1. BWUK – selected historical data (in %)
Month | BWUK | m/m change | y/y change
IX 2025 | –8.3 | +3.8 | +9.4
X 2025 | –10.9 | –2.6 | +4.9
XI 2025 | –9.9 | +1.0 | +7.2
Source: own study based on GUS data.
The rise in BWUK in November 2025 is particularly significant as it coincides with the pre-Christmas period, when households traditionally increase consumption.
1.3. How do consumers perceive purchases?
GUS data indicate that the index relating to major consumer purchases is growing the fastest. Its improvement by 2.4 pp may signal:
- declining inflationary pressure,
- improved availability of products and services,
- greater economic stability perceived by Poles.
Chart 1 in the document (p. 3) shows a clear rebound in all BWUK components compared to 2023, which was a period of significantly weakened consumption.
2. Deterioration of future expectations – decline in WWUK
WWUK, the leading consumer confidence index, fell in November by 0.9 pp to –7.5. This is a sign that consumers view the next 12 months with greater caution.
2.1. What worsened future sentiment?
The biggest contributors to the drop in WWUK were:
- expected rise in unemployment – the assessment fell by 4.7 pp,
- deterioration in the assessment of future saving capacity – down 1.9 pp.
This indicates that consumers – despite some improvement in current conditions – are concerned about labour market risks and their ability to build a financial buffer.
2.2. Components that improved expectations
Interestingly, as with BWUK, some components improved:
- forecasted financial situation of the household (+2.1 pp),
- forecasted economic situation of the country (+0.9 pp).
This means that consumers see promising macroeconomic signals, but fear labour market developments.
2.3. WWUK y/y comparison
WWUK in November 2025 was 4.1 pp higher than a year earlier, confirming a gradual recovery in long-term sentiment.
Table 2. Leading consumer confidence index (WWUK) – selected data (in %)
Month | WWUK | m/m change | y/y change
IX 2025 | –4.3 | +2.0 | +11.3
X 2025 | –6.6 | –2.3 | +5.4
XI 2025 | –7.5 | –0.9 | +4.1
Source: own study based on GUS data.
3. Geopolitical situation and consumer sentiment
The GUS annex includes detailed data on the impact of the war in Ukraine on the sentiment of Poles. In November 2025, a clear decline in the declared impact of the situation across the eastern border is visible.
3.1. How do respondents assess the impact of the war?
According to Table 1 (p. 9):
- significant impact is declared by 12.1% of respondents (decrease m/m),
- moderate impact – 43.5%,
- no impact – 44.4%.
This indicates that more than half of respondents believe the situation in Ukraine does not determine their consumer decisions.
3.2. Fear of job loss
Respondents were also asked about the impact of the war on the risk of losing their job:
- 2.2% of workers declare strong fear,
- 11% – a possibility,
- 31% – rather not,
- 50.3% – no fear (data for November 2025).
This shows that perceived labour market stability in Poland remains high.
3.3. Assessment of threats to the economy and the state
In November 2025:
Type of threat | High | Medium | Low | None
Economy | 27.3% | 44.1% | 22.2% | 6.4%
Personal finances | 5.7% | 34.1% | 33.8% | 26.4%
Poland’s sovereignty & independence | 29.6% | 41.4% | 20.3% | 8.7%
Source: Table 1, p. 9, GUS document.
The highest level of concern relates to sovereignty and the national economy – Poles view these areas as most vulnerable to the effects of the war.
4. Long-term trends – how does November 2025 fit into a broader context?
The document also includes historical values of BWUK and WWUK, allowing for a better understanding of long-term sentiment dynamics.
4.1. Return of optimism after the crises of 2020–2022
The years 2020–2022 were a period of record-low sentiment.
In 2022, BWUK stood at –39.8 and WWUK at –29.5 – among the lowest readings of the 21st century.
Since 2023, a systematic improvement has been underway, continuing into 2024 and 2025.
4.2. Consumers return to consumption – but cautiously
Charts (pp. 3–5) indicate that:
- willingness to make purchases is rising faster than assessments of financial situations,
- assessments of the economy are improving, though not proportionally to the growth in real wages,
- saving tendencies remain weak.
This shows that households are returning to consumption but doing so cautiously.
5. Structural analysis – which groups of indicators change the fastest?
Based on BWUK and WWUK tables, it is possible to identify which elements of sentiment are most responsive.
5.1. The most volatile BWUK components
- economic situation of the country (past 12 months),
- ability to make major purchases,
- household situation (next 12 months).
These areas are especially sensitive to:
- inflation,
- energy prices,
- labour market conditions,
- government decisions on taxes and benefits.
5.2. The most volatile WWUK components
- expectations regarding unemployment,
- expectations regarding saving capacity,
- future economic situation of the country.
Fluctuations in expectations may serve as early indicators of changes in real consumption.
