November 2025 presents an economy that is in a state of equilibrium, but without clear growth impulses. Data from Statistics Poland (GUS) clearly indicate a stabilisation of most business climate indicators, yet this stabilisation is taking place at a relatively low level. In many sectors, caution prevails, along with a limited appetite for risk and conservative investment planning. At the same time, in selected areas – mainly services and finance – we can see signs of moderate optimism, driven by improving current operating conditions.
Two parallel dynamics are therefore emerging in the economy. The first concerns sectors that are sensitive to costs, demand and operational factors – where sentiment remains clearly weaker. The second covers high value-added services and finance, which report better assessments of the current situation, confirming their structural resilience to cyclical fluctuations.
Manufacturing: stabilisation at a low level
In manufacturing, the overall business climate indicator stands at –7.9, which means a minimal yet noticeable improvement compared with October, when its value was slightly lower (–8.0). Such a small move suggests that the sector is reaching a short-term equilibrium in which enterprises neither record further deterioration nor see a clear signal of a rebound. The diagnostic component indicates a slight improvement in the assessment of firms’ current economic situation, while the forward-looking component remains moderately pessimistic, implying that the sector expects a slight slowdown in activity over the coming months.
It is worth emphasising that the structure of firms’ responses regarding investments confirms this caution. More than 44% of enterprises declare that they will keep investment at the previous year’s level, and 32.2% foresee a decline. At the same time, 23.5% plan to increase outlays, which shows that some companies are using this period of stabilisation to modernise production lines or purchase machinery. The main driver behind these activities is the pursuit of higher efficiency rather than expansion.
Construction: worsening sentiment and operational pressure
In construction, the business climate indicator has fallen to –8.9, making it one of the most pessimistic sectors in November. Lower assessments relate both to the current situation of companies and to their short-term outlook. Enterprises report rising material costs, difficulties in recruiting workers and uncertainty over the level of future orders.
In the investment data, construction stands out with a very high share of firms that do not plan to increase investment – as many as 58.2% assume that they will keep spending unchanged, while 30.5% anticipate cuts. Only 11.3% of enterprises declare higher investment outlays. The investment structure is dominated by purchases of transport equipment and construction machinery, with a minimal share of R&D investment. The picture of the construction sector is therefore consistent: it operates under cost pressure, limited demand and a conservative capital policy.
Wholesale and retail trade: stabilisation under the shadow of weaker demand
Wholesale trade shows an indicator of –0.2, which marks a clear improvement compared with the previous month. This is a sign of calmer warehouse and logistics conditions and stabilisation of orders from business partners. However, wholesale remains in slightly negative territory, which indicates that demand dynamics – although better than a few months earlier – are still not strong enough for the sector to move into clearly positive readings.
Retail trade remains at –1.7, confirming that household consumption is stabilising at a moderate level but does not generate strong growth impulses. The fact that retail sales are holding almost steady reflects improved liquidity in some households, but also ongoing caution in purchasing decisions after a period of intense price changes.
In terms of investment, wholesale and retail trade are among the sectors with the highest share of enterprises maintaining the status quo. In both sectors, more than 58% of firms plan no change in investment levels, and only around 13% declare an increase. Investments focus mainly on computer and IT equipment and on modernising logistics processes. This clearly indicates that trade is concentrating on optimisation rather than on expanding sales networks.
Transport and storage: weaker sentiment, stable operations
The transport and storage sector records an indicator of –2.5, meaning that enterprises assess their current situation as moderately negative. Cost pressure related to fuel, fleet maintenance and wages remains evident. The diagnostic component is positive, which means that most companies are coping operationally, but the forward-looking component points to a lack of optimism regarding future volumes of orders.
In terms of investment, transport is one of the most restrained sectors. As many as 59.7% of firms declare that they will maintain their investment outlays, 24.8% expect a decline and only 15.5% plan an increase. Interestingly, this sector shows the highest share of investment in transport equipment (42.4% of firms choose this category), which demonstrates that even under cautious conditions, operational activity requires fleet renewal.
Accommodation and food service activities: first clearly positive signals
Accommodation and food service activities are, in November, among the few sectors shifting clearly into positive territory in terms of the business climate indicator – the value of +0.7 reflects an improvement in both current assessments and expectations. Companies report higher occupancy rates, stabilising service prices and growing tourist traffic. This is particularly important because this sector operates in an environment heavily dependent on consumer sentiment.
At the same time, this is the most conservative sector in terms of investment. As many as 33.4% of enterprises declare a decline in investment and more than 44% report no investment plans at all. In practice, this means that the sector is rebuilding current operations but postponing development projects, focusing instead on liquidity and risk reduction.
Information and communication: good performance, but not without constraints
In the information and communication sector, an indicator of +9.4 confirms that this branch remains one of the most stable and resilient parts of the economy. Firms assess the current situation as favourable, although a slight weakening of the expectations dynamic can be observed. This is partly due to rising technology costs, a slowdown in digital investment in some companies and a lower willingness to engage in implementation projects.
When it comes to investment, this sector shows a large share of spending on computer and telecommunications equipment, while investment in transport means and physical infrastructure is minimal. This confirms the continued digitalisation of services and the development of technological capabilities within enterprises.
Financial and insurance activities: the strongest sector in November
Financial and insurance activities reach an indicator of +24.4 – the highest among all sectors and the only one approaching full balance between current assessments and long-term averages. The sector rates the current situation as very good, and the diagnostic component – standing at 42.7 – confirms that financial institutions are operating in particularly favourable conditions.
In terms of investment, this sector is among the most active, with a clear focus on modernising technology infrastructure, IT systems, data security and analytical tools. It also shows the smallest share of firms planning investment cuts. This is a sector that benefits from high revenue stability and growing demand for financial and insurance services.
Conclusions and economic outlook for 2026
The November business climate picture presented by Statistics Poland shows an economy in a state of relative balance, but this is a cautious balance, lacking dynamism and clear signals of a trend reversal. Enterprises are entering a phase of stabilisation: they are not pursuing aggressive growth strategies, yet they are maintaining operational activity at a safe level. This situation is particularly visible in the investment data, which point to a predominantly defensive rather than expansionary stance. Business sentiment is not dramatically bad, but reflects caution driven by high costs, an uncertain regulatory environment and expectations of demand stabilisation.
The strategic conclusions that emerge from the November business climate survey concern not only the condition of individual sectors but also the overall capacity of the economy to generate growth impulses in 2026. Corporate investment decisions, approaches to cost management and the ability to adapt to changing market conditions become critical.
The economy is entering 2026 with a neutral mood – neither crisis nor boom
One of the key findings from the business climate survey is that the economy has entered a transitional phase in which, after periods of disruption, solid foundations for a sustained recovery are not yet visible. In most sectors, the overall business climate indicators hover around slightly negative or slightly positive levels. This is a situation in which enterprises do not see sufficiently strong incentives to increase investment, but at the same time do not expect a continued decline in activity.
This is reflected, among other things, in the dominance of “neutral” responses in the module on the impact of the current situation on investment propensity. In wholesale and retail trade and in transport and storage, the share of neutral responses is over 69%, and in construction and accommodation it remains at a similar level. This means that entrepreneurs expect stabilisation in the coming months but do not anticipate a clear breakthrough.
In practice, this implies an economy that is not moving towards recession but rather remains in a phase of moderate slowdown. Such a scenario may support firms’ liquidity but does not foster productivity growth or capital expansion. The absence of strong external impulses (for example, large investment programmes) means that companies focus on maintaining their market position rather than strengthening it.
Investment will remain limited – firms choose safety over growth
The investment module provides the clearest diagnosis of the situation of enterprises. The data show that three tendencies dominate in every sector: maintaining investment levels, selectively undertaking modernisation projects and limiting investments that require high capital commitment.
In wholesale trade, where 63.4% of firms declare unchanged investment levels, we see a particularly strong shift from expansion to optimisation. A similar approach can be observed in manufacturing, where, despite more challenging business conditions, production enterprises maintain a high share of investment in machinery and technical equipment. This is driven by the need to prevent productivity declines rather than by expansion plans.
The most passive sector in terms of investment remains accommodation and food service activities, where more than 33% of firms report a decline in investment and 44.3% have no investment plans at all. Despite the improvement in the current situation, this sector does not yet see the right conditions for implementing development projects.
From a macroeconomic perspective, this means that private investment in 2026 will grow slowly, if at all. Economic growth will have to rely on consumption and exports rather than on a strong increase in investment outlays. At the same time, there is no sign that firms are preparing for a sharp collapse in investment – although the scale of investment will be limited, the level is likely to remain stable.
The strongest sectors will remain finance and information & communication – and they will stabilise the economy
The score of +24.4 for finance makes it clear that this sector will play a key role in underpinning economic stability in 2026. The diagnostic component of 42.7 is one of the highest in the entire survey and reflects the sector’s very strong fundamentals: solid capital positions, growing interest in financial services and strong demand for insurance products.
Information and communication, with a score of +9.4, despite a slight weakening, remains one of the most resilient segments of the economy. Firms in this sector continue to declare investment in technology, digitalisation and infrastructure. This means that the IT and telecoms industries will continue to modernise their services, even if market dynamics are no longer as strong as in previous years.
Both sectors are relatively independent of traditional business cycles, which means that in a period of stagnation they will act as stabilising forces for the entire economy. Their investments, focused mainly on technologies and IT systems, can also stimulate demand in other sectors, especially in automation, cloud services and digital solutions.
Manufacturing needs a cost impulse – without it, no rebound will occur
The industrial sector remains in a low-level equilibrium at –7.9, which signals that companies are still operating under pressure from energy, wage and material costs. Although some enterprises are increasing investment (23.5%), this does not translate into a broad-based rebound in the sector, but rather into the modernisation necessary to maintain production continuity.
In its current condition, industry will not generate strong economic growth without an improvement in the cost environment. This means that two factors will be crucial in 2026: stabilisation of energy prices and predictable regulatory policy towards production enterprises. Without these elements, the sector will remain stagnant, and some firms will consider scaling back production or postponing capacity expansion.
Construction needs a restoration of confidence before it starts to invest
The weak result for construction (–8.9) shows that the sector needs a stabilisation of the order pipeline and a predictable financial environment. As long as companies lack certainty regarding the value of public orders, material costs and the availability of workers, investment in this sector will remain constrained.
Construction is the sector that reacts most strongly to changes in costs and access to financing. Any moves in economic policy that reduce the cost of capital or stimulate investment demand (for example, infrastructure projects) could provide a trigger for a rebound. Otherwise, the sector will remain on the defensive, limiting investment to the maintenance of existing fixed assets.
Trade and transport will operate in the shadow of demand stabilisation
Wholesale and retail trade together with transport form the core of the economy’s operational balance. The stabilisation of indicators in these sectors means that demand – while not growing dynamically – remains high enough to sustain companies’ liquidity.
Looking ahead to 2026, trade and transport are unlikely to be sources of strong economic growth, but will instead act as shock absorbers of the cycle. Their investments, focused on logistics, IT and process optimisation, will be crucial for improving the efficiency of the entire economic system, but will not be expansionary in nature.
A cautious economy means cautious consumers – and that affects all sectors
Although the GUS survey does not directly analyse consumer sentiment, the results for retail trade, food services and parts of the service sector indicate that households still behave cautiously. This, in turn, shapes the behaviour of companies, which – seeing demand stabilise but not strongly rebound – refrain from aggressive investment decisions.
In 2026, household behaviour will be one of the key determinants of economic dynamics. If consumption picks up, trade and services will start generating larger orders, which will feed through into manufacturing and transport. Without an improvement in consumer confidence, it will be difficult to talk about a broader business cycle upturn.
2026 will be a year of selective growth, not broad-based recovery
The analysis of the November business climate clearly shows that the Polish economy is entering the new year without strong signals of broad-based recovery. Instead, we are likely to see a scenario of selective growth in which strong sectors pull the economy forward, while weaker ones stabilise it rather than drive it.
Strongest sectors in 2026:
finance, information and communication, selected service segments.
Stabilising sectors:
trade, transport, parts of manufacturing.
Drag factors:
construction, accommodation and food services (in terms of investment).
In 2026, the pace of economic growth will depend above all on:
– the speed at which cost pressure eases,
– the situation in European industry,
– decisions on the financing of public investment,
– the stabilisation of energy prices,
– and the dynamics of private consumption.
The November data from Statistics Poland show that entering 2026 requires entrepreneurs to adopt a balanced, non-aggressive strategy, but one rooted in modernisation and the strengthening of operational resilience. Companies that remain cautious in their investment decisions but do not stop optimisation processes will be in a better position once clearer growth impulses emerge.
