An analysis of the statistical data released by Statistics Poland (GUS) for January 2026 points to a complex and ambiguous state of Kraków’s economy, where positive signals from the production sector clash with a progressing cooling in the labour market. The key phenomenon recorded in this period is a clear dissonance between companies’ operating performance and employment stability. While industrial output and construction-and-assembly production maintained positive year-on-year momentum, Kraków’s labour market simultaneously experienced an erosion of average employment and a marked rise in the number of registered unemployed—both compared with the previous month and with the same period a year earlier. Despite the deterioration in labour-market demographics, wage pressure persisted in the enterprise sector, translating into a higher average gross salary than a year ago.
At the same time, GUS data reveal signs of weakening domestic demand and a slowdown in residential investment. The decline in retail sales, combined with a lower number of dwellings completed, suggests growing consumer caution among residents, potentially driven by uncertainty about the labour market’s stability. An interesting counterpoint to these trends is the steady increase in the number of entities in the national economy recorded in statistical registers. This suggests that, despite more difficult conditions in salaried employment, Kraków’s economic ecosystem remains highly dynamic in micro-entrepreneurship and self-employment, providing an important buffer that stabilises the local economic structure.
Employment: post-year-end correction and sectoral shifts
Average employment in the enterprise sector in January 2026 amounted to 245.3 thousand people (full-time equivalent). This represents a decline of 2.3% versus December 2025 and 1.4% compared with January 2025. Month on month, the strongest drop in employment occurred in professional, scientific and technical activities; declines were also recorded, among others, in information and communication and in trade. At the same time, some industries expanded, suggesting that the labour market is not so much “going dark” as it is rebalancing across sectors.
Sectors under pressure and sectors gaining momentum
Compared with the beginning of 2025, the steepest fall in employment was recorded in professional, scientific and technical activities, as well as in transportation and warehousing and in trade. This is an important signal for Kraków, which has traditionally relied on strong services and well-developed segments of the modern economy. Over the same period, employment growth appeared in industry, real estate activities, administrative and support services, and construction. This pattern may indicate that some firms are cutting jobs in “office-based” segments, while demand for labour is rising in more operational and investment-driven sectors.
Unemployment: more registered jobseekers and weaker availability of vacancies
At the end of January 2026, the number of registered unemployed in Kraków stood at 13,644. This is 4.0% more than a month earlier and 24.1% more than in the same period of 2025—an increase strong enough to be difficult to explain by seasonality alone. The city’s unemployment rate rose to 2.6% versus 2.5% a month earlier and 2.1% a year earlier. The rise in unemployment is all the more noticeable because, in January, the relative availability of jobs—measured by the ratio of unemployed persons to vacancies—deteriorated.
Vacancy market: tougher competition for each job opening
In January 2026, labour offices received 807 job offers, and by the end of the month they had vacancies available for 1,066 people. As a result, there were 13 people per job offer in Kraków, compared with 8 a month earlier. This shift indicates that pressure on the labour-supply side is rising faster than demand for workers. An additional element of the situation is that the vast majority of registered unemployed are not eligible for benefits, raising the economic stakes of finding employment quickly.
Wages: year-on-year growth maintained, but a month-on-month decline
The average monthly gross wage in the enterprise sector in January 2026 was PLN 11,085.96. Compared with December 2025, this represents a decline of 5.5%, which is typical at the start of the year when bonuses and other seasonal payments fade. At the same time, wages were 6.4% higher year on year, suggesting that wage pressure has not disappeared despite cooling in the labour market. In practice, this can be read as the continuation of pay adjustments to living costs, as well as competition for specialists in selected industries.
Industry: a clear year-on-year rebound in output
Sold production of industry in January 2026 amounted to PLN 4,304.2 million and, in constant prices, was 10.9% higher than a year earlier. In manufacturing alone, the year-on-year increase reached 11.7%, making it one of the strongest signals in the entire dataset. Higher sales were recorded, among others, in the manufacture of textiles, the repair and installation of machinery, and in chemicals and electronics. At the same time, some industries posted steep declines, indicating that the recovery is selective and dependent on the structure of orders.
Construction: a seasonal month-on-month drop, but strong year-on-year growth
Sold construction output in January 2026 was noticeably lower than in December, which is typical for this sector in a winter month. At the same time, compared with January 2025, growth was recorded, and construction-and-assembly production was 26.6% higher year on year. The annual increase appeared both in the construction of buildings and in specialised construction activities, as well as in civil engineering. This set of results suggests that the pipeline of work is stronger than a year earlier, but that January’s project execution was constrained by seasonality.
Retail: weaker consumption in retail data
Retail sales in January 2026 were 9.0% lower than in January 2025 and also significantly below December’s level. The dynamics may have been influenced both by seasonal effects after the holiday period and by more cautious consumer behaviour amid rising labour-market uncertainty. Across categories, the picture is highly mixed: some segments recorded declines, while sales of furniture, consumer electronics and household appliances rose sharply year on year. It is also worth noting that wholesale sales were higher than a year earlier, which is sometimes interpreted as a signal of inventory building or preparation for future demand.
Housing: fewer completed units and weaker “available now” supply
According to preliminary data, 332 dwellings were completed in Kraków in January 2026—43.2% fewer than a year earlier. The decline was particularly visible in housing intended for sale or rent, while self-built housing recorded an increase in completions. At the same time, the number of permits and notifications with a construction design fell, which may constrain new supply in the coming quarters. These data matter for the rental market and housing prices, because fewer completed units typically mean greater pressure on availability.
Companies and entrepreneurship: more entities despite a tougher labour market
At the end of January 2026, Kraków’s REGON register listed 194,407 entities in the national economy—4.4% more than a year earlier. Growth covered both commercial companies and natural persons conducting business activity. In January alone, 1,217 new entities were added, and the number of registrations was higher than a month earlier, confirming sustained entrepreneurial activity. At the same time, the number of deregistrations also increased, showing that economic churn remains high and that some firms are unable to withstand market conditions.
Conclusions: a transitional month, but important signals for 2026
The January 2026 data depict Kraków as an economy in transition: wages are rising and industry and construction are rebounding, but the labour market is deteriorating and retail sales are weaker. The most worrying development is the rapid increase in registered unemployment and the worsening ratio of unemployed persons to vacancies, because this indicator quickly translates into sentiment and consumer decisions. The most promising signal comes from industry, where the rise in sold production in constant prices points to a genuine improvement in activity. If the industrial rebound holds over the coming months, it may gradually stabilise the labour market—although the pace of this pass-through is often delayed.
