January 2026 in Warsaw brought a picture of moderate cooling in the labour market, while growth in industry was maintained. Average employment in the enterprise sector was slightly lower than a year earlier, and the number of registered unemployed increased year on year. At the same time, sold industrial production in constant prices was higher than in January 2025, confirming positive momentum in part of the real economy. The most significant drag in the data set is clearly weaker construction activity, along with a much smaller number of dwellings completed compared to a year earlier.
Average employment: minimal month-on-month change, slight year-on-year decline
Average employment in the enterprise sector in January 2026 amounted to 1,117.6 thousand full-time equivalents. Compared with December 2025, this represented a symbolic decline of 0.05%, while in relation to January 2025 employment decreased by 0.4%. The data show that Warsaw’s labour market is not undergoing a sharp correction, but a mild downward trend persists on an annual basis. At the same time, sectoral shifts in the background suggest a change in the structure of labour demand rather than a uniform “shock” across the entire economy.
Structure of changes: declines in transport and trade, increases in professional services and construction
Compared with the beginning of 2025, employment fell most significantly in transportation and storage, as well as in accommodation and food services and in trade. Negative dynamics were also recorded in real estate activities, industry, and information and communication, although the scale of decline there was smaller. At the same time, employment growth appeared in professional, scientific and technical activities, as well as in construction and administrative and support services. This pattern suggests that companies are reducing positions in areas where costs and demand are more sensitive to the cycle, while maintaining or expanding resources in service- and project-oriented segments.
Unemployment: more registered, rate unchanged month on month
At the end of January 2026, 20,082 unemployed persons were registered in Warsaw, 0.6% more than a month earlier and 4.9% more than a year earlier. The registered unemployment rate stood at 1.5%, remaining at the December level but higher than a year earlier, when it was 1.4%. The increase in the number of unemployed is significant primarily as a signal of a deterioration in labour market conditions, even though Warsaw’s unemployment rate remains low compared to the national average. It should also be noted that the comparability of some data may be limited due to changes in registration and record-keeping rules following the entry into force of a new act on 1 June 2025.
Inflow to and outflow from unemployment: rising registrations, a large share of “administrative” outflow
In January 2026, 3,040 new unemployed persons were registered, representing an increase compared with December and a higher level than a year earlier. A total of 2,912 individuals were deregistered, but only part of this outflow resulted from taking up employment; a large group lost their unemployed status due to a lack of contact with the labour office for at least 90 days. This is an important detail, as it shows that “outflow” statistics do not always indicate a genuine improvement in employment conditions. At the same time, the majority of unemployed persons were not entitled to benefits, which increases economic pressure and may shorten households’ decision-making horizons.
Job offers: less tension than a month earlier, but the market remains competitive
In January 2026, 1,250 job offers were submitted, and at the end of the month labour offices had vacancies for 986 persons. There were 20 registered unemployed persons per job offer, slightly better than a month earlier when the ratio was 22. However, the improvement in the indicator does not mean comfort for job seekers, as the market remains competitive and the year-on-year increase in unemployment is evident. In practice, this can be interpreted as a signal of stabilisation at a “low level” of vacancy dynamics, without a clear breakthrough.
Wages: seasonal drop after December and clear year-on-year increase
The average monthly gross wage in the enterprise sector in January 2026 amounted to PLN 10,847.21. Compared with December, it decreased by 5.7%, which most often results from the expiration of bonuses and annual payments visible at the end of the year. At the same time, in relation to January 2025 wages were higher by 6.6%, indicating continued wage pressure despite a cooler labour market. It is worth noting that on an annual basis almost all sections recorded wage growth, with construction being the exception, where dynamics were slightly negative.
Construction: clearly weaker than a year earlier
Sold construction production in January 2026 amounted to PLN 4,093.4 million and was lower both month on month and year on year. Compared with January 2025, the decline reached 25.6%, one of the strongest negative changes in the entire set of indicators. Construction and assembly production was also lower than a year earlier, with declines affecting building construction, specialised construction activities, and civil engineering works. Importantly, labour productivity measured by output per employee also decreased, suggesting not only a smaller scale of works but also weaker efficiency in the use of resources compared to the previous year.
Trade: retail up year on year, wholesale down
Retail sales in January 2026 were significantly lower than in December, but increased by 4.7% year on year. Annual growth was recorded in many categories, including non-specialised stores, clothing and footwear, pharmaceuticals, and food. At the same time, some categories declined, particularly vehicle and fuel sales, which may reflect consumer caution in high-value purchases. A different signal comes from wholesale trade, as wholesale sales in trading enterprises were 1.3% lower than a year earlier, which may indicate more cautious inventory replenishment.
Industry: positive momentum and selective rebound in manufacturing
Sold industrial production in January 2026 reached PLN 16,030.5 million and was 7.5% higher in constant prices than a year earlier. In manufacturing, growth amounted to 4.3%, meaning positive, though more moderate dynamics than in industry as a whole. The data show very strong increases in selected divisions, including textiles, machinery and equipment, furniture, and electronics, alongside declines in segments such as clothing and non-metallic mineral products. Labour productivity in industry increased by 7.9% year on year in real terms, which may indicate better utilisation of production capacity or a shift in sales towards higher-value product categories.
Residential construction: far fewer dwellings completed, weaker start of new projects
In January 2026, 854 dwellings were completed in Warsaw, 30.6% fewer than a year earlier. The decline affected both units intended for sale or rent and individual housing, painting a picture of weaker supply “here and now.” The number of dwellings whose construction was started was also significantly lower than in the corresponding period of 2025, which may limit future supply in subsequent quarters. At the same time, the number of building permits issued increased very strongly, suggesting that part of the investment pipeline is being formally prepared but has not yet translated into the pace of construction and completion of ready units.
Entrepreneurship: more entities, high turnover in the register
At the end of January 2026, 600,037 entities of the national economy were registered in Warsaw, representing a 3.6% increase year on year. The number of commercial companies and sole proprietors increased, and in January alone 3,492 new entities were registered. At the same time, the number of deregistrations also rose, indicating high turnover and changes in market structure rather than merely calm net growth. It is also worth noting the growing number of suspended businesses, which often reflects firms’ responses to uncertainty and demand fluctuations.
Conclusions: Warsaw’s economy remains strong, but construction is a clear drag
January 2026 in Warsaw brought stable, though slightly weaker employment and a year-on-year increase in unemployment, while wage growth was maintained. The most positive signal comes from industry, where sold production was higher than a year earlier and labour productivity increased. The main burden remains construction, which recorded declines in both sold production and construction and assembly output, along with a marked drop in the number of dwellings completed. In the coming months, it will be crucial to see whether the rise in housing permits and positive industrial momentum translate into a real strengthening of demand and an improvement in labour market conditions.
