Poland: GDP grows by 4.0% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2025 – consumption drives Poland’s economy, investment stable, net exports under pressure.
The preliminary estimate of Poland’s gross domestic product for the fourth quarter of 2025 indicates that the Polish economy maintained a solid growth rate. Non-seasonally adjusted GDP increased in real terms by 4.0% year-on-year, compared with 3.5% growth in the same quarter of 2024. This marks an acceleration in annual dynamics and confirms that the second half of 2025 brought a clear revival in economic activity in Poland.
On a quarter-on-quarter basis, after seasonal adjustment, real GDP in Poland rose by 1.0% compared with the third quarter of 2025 and was 3.6% higher than a year earlier (in constant prices with 2020 as the reference year). These figures point to stable, gradually distributed growth, with no signs of overheating in the Polish economy.
Recovery compared to 2023–2024 in Poland
An analysis of quarterly data for 2023–2025 shows a gradual recovery in Poland’s GDP dynamics following the slowdown in 2023, when year-on-year declines were still recorded in the first half of the year (99.5% in both the first and second quarters). In 2024, growth clearly accelerated, reaching 3.5% year-on-year in the fourth quarter. In 2025, the growth rate in Poland stabilized within a range of 3.2–4.0% year-on-year, peaking in the fourth quarter.
Seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter growth in Poland remained relatively stable throughout 2025, fluctuating around 0.7–1.0%, suggesting a structural rather than purely temporary recovery.
Domestic demand as the main growth engine in Poland
The main growth driver in Poland in the fourth quarter of 2025 was domestic demand, which increased by 4.3% year-on-year, compared with 3.7% in the third quarter. Its contribution to Poland’s GDP growth amounted to +4.2 percentage points, meaning that virtually the entire economic expansion was generated by domestic factors.
Total consumption in Poland rose by 5.2% year-on-year. Household consumption increased by 4.2%, while government consumption grew by 7.3%. The overall contribution of consumption to Poland’s GDP growth reached +3.8 percentage points, of which +2.1 percentage points came from households and +1.7 percentage points from the public sector.
These figures indicate continued resilience of consumption demand in Poland, supported by real income growth and a stable labor market situation at the national level, despite regional disparities.
Investment: positive but moderate impulse in Poland
Gross capital formation in Poland increased by 1.7% year-on-year, compared with 0.6% in the third quarter, resulting in a positive GDP contribution of +0.4 percentage points. Gross fixed capital formation rose by 4.7% year-on-year, although this pace was lower than in the third quarter (7.1%).
The investment rate in Poland stood at 22.3% of GDP, compared with 22.4% a year earlier, indicating stabilization of the investment share in the Polish economy. On a quarter-on-quarter basis (seasonally adjusted), fixed asset investment increased by 0.3%, while total capital formation slightly declined (-0.3%) due to a negative contribution from changes in inventories.
Inventory changes continued to weigh on Poland’s GDP (-0.6 percentage points), although less strongly than in the third quarter (-1.0 percentage point). This may indicate a gradual adjustment of inventory levels to current demand conditions in Poland.
Net exports under pressure in Poland
In the fourth quarter of 2025, net exports made a negative contribution to Poland’s economic growth (-0.2 percentage points), compared with a positive contribution of +0.2 percentage points in the third quarter. This indicates that imports grew faster than exports, which is typical of a recovery phase driven by consumption and investment in Poland.
The negative contribution of foreign trade may also be linked to weaker economic conditions among Poland’s key trading partners, while domestic demand for imported consumer and investment goods increased.
Sector structure in Poland: strong construction and trade, weak financial sector
On a quarter-on-quarter basis (seasonally adjusted), gross value added in Poland’s national economy increased by 0.9%. The highest growth was recorded in trade and repair activities (+3.0%) and construction (+2.3%). Industry as well as transportation and storage both posted growth of 1.4%.
In Poland’s public sector – including public administration, defense, education, healthcare and social services – growth amounted to 0.7% quarter-on-quarter, indicating moderate but stable expansion.
Financial and insurance activities in Poland stood out negatively: gross value added declined by 3.1% quarter-on-quarter and by as much as 13.5% year-on-year. This strong annual correction may be related to a high comparison base, regulatory changes, or margin normalization following a period of elevated profitability in Poland’s banking sector.
On a year-on-year basis (non-seasonally adjusted), gross value added in Poland’s national economy increased by 3.5%. The strongest dynamics were recorded in transportation and storage (+5.0%), construction and trade (both +4.9%), and industry (+4.1%).
Summary: growth in Poland driven by domestic fundamentals
The fourth quarter of 2025 confirms that Poland’s economy is in a phase of moderate but stable growth. A GDP increase of 4.0% year-on-year, supported by strong domestic demand and rising consumption, points to solid internal foundations of the Polish economy.
At the same time, the structure of growth – with a clear dominance of consumption and a negative contribution from net exports – suggests that Poland’s economy remains sensitive to external factors. The stabilization of investment at above 22% of GDP is a positive signal, but further acceleration will be crucial to ensure Poland’s long-term growth potential.
The final assessment of the economic situation in Poland will depend on subsequent data revisions and the international context. However, the preliminary figures for the fourth quarter of 2025 present an image of an economy that closed the year noticeably stronger than the previous one.
The information is based on the preliminary data estimate published by Statistics Poland (GUS).
