Statistics Poland’s March survey shows that sentiment among businesses in the Polish economy improved visibly, although the overall picture remains uneven. Better business climate assessments were recorded mainly in manufacturing, wholesale trade, information and communication, and parts of the services sector. At the same time, retail trade and transport continue to face pressure from weak demand, worsening financial conditions, and cautious expectations for the months ahead.
In March 2026, the regional business climate indicator, or R-BCI, increased across most of the analysed sectors and in at least half of Poland’s voivodeships. On a year-on-year basis, the improvement was particularly evident in manufacturing, wholesale trade, transportation and storage, as well as information and communication. A comparison with February also suggests that businesses viewed the economic environment somewhat more positively than a month earlier.
Still, this is not a story of an even rebound across the entire economy. Rather, Statistics Poland presents an economy moving at “two speeds.” On the one hand, there are sectors where positive assessments of current conditions prevail and expectations for the next three months are improving. On the other, some industries continue to operate under strong uncertainty, cost pressure, and weaker sales.
Accommodation and food services stood out most clearly on the upside. In this part of the economy, businesses assessed conditions most optimistically. A positive R-BCI was recorded there in 12 voivodeships, with the highest readings in Podlaskie, Mazowieckie, and Podkarpackie. Importantly, better current assessments were also accompanied by more favourable forecasts. Companies in this sector expect improvements in both their general and financial situation, as well as stronger demand for their services.
A very strong picture also emerges from the information and communication sector. The R-BCI was positive in 11 voivodeships, with particularly high readings in Świętokrzyskie, Podlaskie, and Kujawsko-Pomorskie. This is an important signal, as it suggests that more knowledge-based and digital service segments remain relatively resilient to broader economic uncertainty. At the same time, it should be noted that regional differences are still significant.
Wholesale trade also looks positive. In most voivodeships, assessments improved both year on year and month on month, while businesses more often expect stronger supplier orders and better sales. This may be one of the more useful signals for business, as wholesale activity usually reacts relatively quickly to changes in supply chains and in demand from other companies.
In manufacturing, the picture is also better than a year ago, although it remains mixed. Improvement was recorded in nine voivodeships, while a positive indicator appeared in eight. The most optimistic regions were Mazowsze, Małopolska, and Podkarpacie. Manufacturers more often expect higher orders and output, which may point to industry gradually emerging from its weaker period.
Retail trade remains much weaker. Alongside transport and storage, it was one of the areas where negative indicator readings persisted in most voivodeships. Despite improvement compared with both February and March last year, retail businesses still most often assess the current condition of their companies negatively. A worsening financial situation, excessive inventories, and lower sales are also clearly visible.
Transport and storage should be viewed even more cautiously. Although many regions recorded an improvement year on year, the indicator remains below zero in most voivodeships. Businesses assess current demand, service sales, and their own financial condition negatively, while expectations for the coming months are largely pessimistic.
Business barriers deserve separate attention. In March, high labour costs again remained the most frequently cited obstacle, especially in accommodation and food services and in construction. The second commonly mentioned constraint was uncertainty about the general economic situation, felt most strongly in transport and wholesale trade. High budget-related charges also remain one of the main problems for construction and parts of the services sector.
In construction itself, the picture is mixed. Half of the voivodeships recorded positive business climate readings, and on a month-on-month basis the improvement covered a significant share of regions. On the other hand, companies still report a decline in the number of orders and in output, while also pointing to the difficulty of predicting the economic environment.
An interesting addition comes from responses concerning wages. Across all surveyed areas, the financial condition of the company remains the most important factor influencing pay levels. Only after that came the need to preserve the real value of wages and the need to maintain competitive pay.
From a business perspective, the key conclusion is that the Polish economy has entered a phase of moderate improvement in sentiment, but not yet a phase of broad and even acceleration. Some sectors are regaining momentum, while others are still operating defensively.
For businesses, this means one thing: 2026 will be a period of selective recovery. The advantage will go to companies that remain cost-flexible, can respond quickly to changes in demand, and are able to preserve profitability despite ongoing cost pressure.
Source: own elaboration based on Statistics Poland (GUS) data
